The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for consumption. Recently released high-frequency and leading indicators show that the activity in logistics and business districts is rising, reflecting a growing release of consumer demand both online and offline. Service sectors such as cultural tourism, accommodation, and dining have seen increased vitality, and with the government’s direct consumption subsidies to boost market confidence, many experts have analyzed that the momentum for consumption recovery is on an upward trend.

Logistics Index Climbs, Online Consumption Growth Accelerates

Recent indices such as the e-commerce logistics volume index and logistics prosperity index show that in October, the heat of online consumption continued to rise, reflecting the vitality and potential of new consumer formats.

Data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on November 11 showed that in October, China’s e-commerce logistics index reached 115 points, up by 0.6 points from September. The total e-commerce logistics business volume index reached 133.7 points, an increase of 2.5 points from September, the highest in nearly five years.

During the same period, China’s logistics industry prosperity index stood at 52.6%, also higher than in September. Hu Han, deputy chief economist at the China Logistics Information Center, analyzed that under the influence of holiday factors and local consumption-promoting policies, offline wholesale markets saw accelerated circulation, and supermarket retail businesses experienced a recovery. Online social and e-commerce platforms were both flourishing, and e-commerce activities were highly active.

As business volumes in industries such as e-commerce and logistics increased, confidence and expectations also improved. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the business activity index for services rose from contraction to expansion in October, and the business activity expectations index for the non-manufacturing sector ended a three-month decline, rising above 56%.

Li Gang, Director-General of the Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, introduced at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the vitality of new types of consumption is strong, with digital consumption growing rapidly. Going forward, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to cultivate new consumption growth points, promote the development of digital consumption, and implement actions to enhance digital consumption.