According to a report from NBC on November 6, former President Donald Trump, a Republican candidate for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, announced in the early hours of November 6 that he had won the election. This has been one of the most dramatic presidential races of the century, and even the past 60 years, becoming a global topic of discussion. For cross-border e-commerce sellers, this marks a significant jolt.

In previous media interviews and public speeches, Trump had indicated his intention to impose a 10% import tariff and a 60% or higher tariff on goods exported from China to the U.S. This would significantly raise the cost of goods exported by Chinese sellers to North America. Faced with high tariffs, some cross-border e-commerce businesses may consider shifting their supply chains to countries or regions with lower tariffs, such as Southeast Asia or Latin America, and then exporting goods from these locations to the U.S.

At the same time, it’s not difficult to predict that Trump, who has maintained a hardline stance toward China, will focus on protecting U.S. domestic businesses after taking office, in line with his campaign slogan to “Make America Great Again.” As a result, Chinese cross-border sellers are likely to face more rigid trade barriers. In addition to tariffs, the U.S. will likely intensify its customs enforcement, with stricter inspection standards that will challenge the logistics efficiency of cross-border e-commerce. Longer customs clearance times will result in higher logistics costs and increased risks during transportation.

The 2024 Southeast Asia Internet Economy Report released by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company highlights that in 2024, Southeast Asia’s digital economy has made significant progress, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reaching $263 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase. The e-commerce market is expected to reach $159 billion in 2024, with revenues hitting $35 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth. In light of stricter U.S. trade restrictions and more intense regulatory measures against China, the Southeast Asian market may continue to be seen as a prime destination for cross-border sellers, potentially driving a wave of trade shifts.

Southeast Asia not only benefits from its geographical proximity to China but has also seen rapid development in recent years. The growth in market demand and changes in consumer behavior offer vast potential for further development.