The drastic change in the US tariff policy has caused an earthquake in the industry, and the small-scale exemption has been completely terminated. Since May 2, the US has cancelled the tax-free policy for packages worth less than $800 from China. Parcels through the postal channel need to pay an ad valorem tax of 120% or a customs duty of $100 per item (increased to $200 starting from June 1), and the tax rate for the commercial express channel is as high as 145%. This has led to a sharp increase in the prices of products on platforms such as Temu and SHEIN (for example, a product priced at $10 has increased to $28). The weekly sales have decreased by 17% and 23% respectively, and some sellers in Shenzhen have been forced to suspend shipments and issue refunds. The average price of over a thousand products on Amazon has increased by 30%, but excessive price increases may pose the risk of losing consumers.

Strategic Adjustments by Platforms and Sellers. Temu and SHEIN have significantly cut their advertising investments in the US and shifted to the European market. TikTok sellers are accelerating their layout in Mexico, and the local sales have soared by 695%. Leading enterprises are accelerating the construction of overseas warehouses: SHEIN has newly built 3 distribution centers in the US, and the parent company of Temu plans to invest $5 billion to build an overseas warehouse network to achieve “local shipment + delivery within 1 to 7 days”. Logistics enterprises have simultaneously raised freight rates and added the service of  (pre-collected tax). Some sellers have shifted to the T01/T11 customs clearance mode, but they are faced with the problems of extended timeliness and increased costs.

Deep Reconstruction of the Cross-border Logistics Pattern, Double Increase in Costs and Risks. The US tariff policy combined with the EU carbon border tax has led to the upgrade of cross-border logistics cost accounting from “comparing basic freight rates” to “penetrating the risks of the entire supply chain”. For example, the fuel surcharge for UPS’s North American route has exceeded 30.75%. If peak season congestion fees are added, the actual cost may be more than 25% higher than the quoted price. Some low-price logistics providers, due to adopting the strategy of low declaration, have caused sellers to make up for the difference in customs valuation, and the cost per order has surged by 40%.

Leading Enterprises Accelerate Global Layout. Amazon has newly built a high-tech logistics center in Leeds, UK, with an investment of £500 million and introduced robot delivery technology. At the same time, it has added a distribution station in Saltillo, Mexico, strengthening the local same-day and next-day delivery service capabilities. Logistics service providers optimize multimodal transportation through intelligent routing algorithms, and control the timeliness fluctuations in extreme situations within 7%. However, due to relying on a single transportation node, the delivery success rate of small and medium-sized logistics providers has decreased by 35% during the congestion of the Suez Canal.

China’s Zero-tariff Policy for Southeast Asia Comes into Effect. Since May 1, China has implemented a 100% zero-tariff policy for 43 least developed countries including Laos and Cambodia, covering 935 commodities, such as photovoltaic modules and agricultural products, promoting the deep integration of the regional supply chain. Combining this policy with the RCEP certificate of origin can help sellers further reduce tariff costs.

Accelerated Expansion of the Cross-border Payment System. The Cross-border Payment System of Digital Yuan (CIPS) has been officially connected to the ten ASEAN countries and six Middle Eastern countries, covering nearly 38% of global trade volume and enabling cross-border transactions bypassing the SWIFT network. UnionPay International has achieved interconnection of QR code payments with Vietnam and Laos, and Malaysia and Cambodia plan to achieve 80% of cross-border trade settled in digital yuan or local currency by the end of 2025.