US President Trump will announce major tariff policies in the early morning of April 3 (Bangkok time). This decision, which he calls the “Trade Liberation Day,” has caused great tension in the global logistics industry. According to the latest statement of the White House spokesperson, the United States may impose a unified global tariff of up to 20% on countries including Thailand’s major trading partners. This will have a profound impact on the Southeast Asian supply chain system that relies on cross-border logistics.

[Core Impact Points of the Policy]
The automotive industry chain is the first to bear the brunt: A 25% import tax on automobiles will be implemented starting from April 3, and it will be extended to auto parts on May 3. The exports of Toyota’s Thai factory to the United States may be severely hit (the export value to the United States reached 2.8 billion US dollars in 2023). The Thai Automotive Parts Association has issued a warning: The new US regulations may lead to a 15-20% increase in the supply chain cost.

The Risk of Systemic Tariff Upgrade: There are plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries with trade deficits. The focus is on the “Group of 15” (including China, the European Union, and other major transit trading partners of Thailand). A mechanism of differential VAT taxation may be adopted, which will impact the advantages of Thailand’s entrepot trade.

Changes in the Energy Transportation Pattern: A 25% import tax will be imposed on countries that purchase oil from Venezuela starting from April 2. The crude oil import route of PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) in Thailand, which transits through Singapore, is facing adjustments.

[Countermeasures of Thailand’s Logistics Industry]
Surachet, President of the Thai International Freight Forwarders Association, said that the industry is launching emergency plans: Adjusting the 仓位配比 (cargo space allocation) of the China-US route and increasing the transportation capacity of the secondary route between the Middle East and Europe. Accelerating the upgrade of the digital system for customs clearance documents to deal with the possibly surging cases of tariff disputes. Establishing a mechanism for sharing tariff flexibility with major automobile manufacturers.